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Space weather and forecast
18.03.2019 11:03 / SPACE WEATHER Space weather and forecast

Space weather - Solar activity has been at a very low level. The solar disk is spotless, no active area. The images obtained did not show any Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

         During the reporting period, the flood of more than 2 MeV energy loaded electrons were low level. The flood of more than 10 MeV energy loaded protons remained stable at the background level throughout the entire reporting period.

            During the reporting period, the parameters of the solar wind were moderate. We have seen weaknesses in the parameters in the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed has fallen from 450 km/s to 375 km/s. The total magnetic field was 9 nT and the Bz component was at the lowest price - 8 nT at 17 March/00.00 UTC-17 March/14.30 UTC range. The Phi angle has gone from the negative sector to the positive sector at 17 March/05.06 UTC.

            Although the geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the last 24 hours, but activity was recorded at intervals (Kp=2-3).

            Space weather forecast - Solar activity will remain at a very low level during forecast days (March 18-20).

            It is expected that flood of more than 2 MeV energy loaded electrons will remain at low or medium levels during the prediction period (March 18-20). It is expected that flood of more than 10 MeV energy loaded protons will continue at the background levels during the forecast period (March 04-06).

            Insofar as the geoeffectiveness of the CH HSS effect will decrease after the CME event on March 12, the solar wind parameters will continue to weaken during the forecast period (March 18-20).

            During the forecast period (March 18-20), the overall calm in the geomagnetic field is predicted due to the decrease in the effect of CH HSS effect (Kp=3-4). The probability of a magnetic hurricane is estimated to be less than 1% on March 18-19 and less than 5% on March 20th.

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